Today / Norway - Toppserien / Vålerenga W vs Hønefoss W

Vålerenga W vs Hønefoss W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 16:00

Vålerenga W logo
Vålerenga W
PPG 1.71 · HOME
LAST 5
LLLWW
2 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5
Hønefoss W logo
Hønefoss W
PPG 0.33 · AWAY
LAST 5
DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.51 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.2%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.3%1-14.0%1-21.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.5%2-17.0%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-18.0%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-116.5%4+-27.7%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 68.4%
Draw 16.0%
Away win 15.6%
Over 2.5 69.5%
Over 3.5 48.1%
BTTS 60.4%
Home O1.5 78.4%
Away O1.5 25.5%

League track record

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%
O2.5 61%
BTTS 61%
Score Hit 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.6%
#2 1–1 4.0%
#3 3–1 8.0%
#4 2–0 7.5%
#5 4–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vålerenga W3.4
Hønefoss W0.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VÅLERENGA W · PPG 1.71

HØNEFOSS W · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
66%
STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.51 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vålerenga W (H) 68.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 16.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Hønefoss W (A) 15.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vålerenga W face Hønefoss W in Norway - Toppserien on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vålerenga W a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Hønefoss W 16%, so Vålerenga W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Vålerenga W and 0.9 for Hønefoss W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vålerenga W are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.33 for Hønefoss W. This match finished 2-1.

PredictVantage

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