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Olmaliq vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 14:00

Olmaliq

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+16.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.0%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.9%1-18.6%1-26.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.5%3-16.5%3-24.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.7%4+-24.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 50.0% 2.00 -0.8%

Draw 22.0% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Away win 28.4% 30.3% 3.30 -3.8%

Over 2.5 64.7% 55.6% 1.80 +16.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 36.0% 2.78 +20.9%

BTTS 63.2% 59.9% 1.67 +5.5%

Home O1.5 59.6% 52.4% 1.91 +13.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 37.3% 2.68 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olmaliq2.1

Dinamo Samarqand1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OLMALIQ · PPG 1.50

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olmaliq (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -0.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Dinamo Samarqand (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olmaliq face Dinamo Samarqand in Uzbekistan - Super League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olmaliq a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Dinamo Samarqand 28%, so Olmaliq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Olmaliq and 1.5 for Dinamo Samarqand (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olmaliq are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.12 for Dinamo Samarqand. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Olmaliq vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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