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Nautico Recife vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 00:30

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ceara

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.0%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.6%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.8%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.1%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 45.9% 2.18 +1.8%

Draw 26.4% 33.6% 2.98 -12.8%

Away win 26.9% 27.8% 3.60 -1.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 44.4% 2.25 +12.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.8% 4.20 +10.8%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 39.4% 42.6% 2.35 -7.4%

Away O1.5 22.8% 29.9% 3.35 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0✓ 14.2%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico Recife1.4

Ceara0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.40

CEARA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nautico Recife (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +1.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -12.8%

Ceara (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico Recife face Ceara in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico Recife a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Ceara 27%, so Nautico Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nautico Recife and 0.9 for Ceara (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico Recife are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Ceara. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Nautico Recife vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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