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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Kiryat Yam SC Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 1 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:30

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kiryat Yam SC

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.0%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.6%1-111.8%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.7%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 39.2% 2.55 +6.6%

Draw 24.0% 31.3% 3.20 -13.9%

Away win 34.2% 39.2% 2.55 -12.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 33.4% 33.9% 2.95 -1.5%

BTTS 60.3% 62.5% 1.60 -3.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 44.4% 2.25 -10.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 44.4% 2.25 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa1.5

Kiryat Yam SC1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI KABILIO JAFFA · PPG 1.42

KIRYAT YAM SC · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +6.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.9%

Kiryat Yam SC (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa face Kiryat Yam SC in Israel - Liga Leumit on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Kiryat Yam SC 34%, so Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa and 1.4 for Kiryat Yam SC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.45 for Kiryat Yam SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 2-6.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Kiryat Yam SC Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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