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Ironi Modi'in vs Maccabi Herzliya Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 1 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:30

Ironi Modi'in

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Maccabi Herzliya

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-111.3%0-27.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.3%1-113.0%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.5%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 33.3% 3.00 +8.0%

Draw 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Away win 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 28.3% 27.4% 3.65 +2.0%

BTTS 53.0% 56.5% 1.77 -6.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 35.7% 2.80 -14.3%

Away O1.5 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ironi Modi'in1.2

Maccabi Herzliya1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IRONI MODI'IN · PPG 1.50

MACCABI HERZLIYA · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ironi Modi'in (H) 36.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Maccabi Herzliya (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ironi Modi'in face Maccabi Herzliya in Israel - Liga Leumit on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ironi Modi'in a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Maccabi Herzliya 37%, so Maccabi Herzliya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ironi Modi'in and 1.3 for Maccabi Herzliya (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ironi Modi'in are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.64 for Maccabi Herzliya. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Ironi Modi'in vs Maccabi Herzliya Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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