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Vizela U23 vs Sporting CP U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:00

Vizela U23

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sporting CP U23

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.0%0-25.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.0%1-111.6%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 44.4% 2.25 -19.0%

Draw 28.5% 29.0% 3.45 -1.0%

Away win 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

Over 2.5 52.1% 56.5% 1.77 -7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

BTTS 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 48.8% 2.05 -18.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 42.6% 2.35 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.8%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vizela U231.4

Sporting CP U231.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VIZELA U23 · PPG 1.65

SPORTING CP U23 · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vizela U23 (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.0%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.0%

Sporting CP U23 (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vizela U23 face Sporting CP U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vizela U23 a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Sporting CP U23 36%, so Vizela U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vizela U23 and 1.4 for Sporting CP U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vizela U23 are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.30 for Sporting CP U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Vizela U23 vs Sporting CP U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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