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Torreense U23 vs Portimonense U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:00

Torreense U23

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DDD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Portimonense U23

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLD ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.7%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.6%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 69.4% 1.44 -25.3%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Away win 23.9% 18.2% 5.50 +18.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.2% 2.92 -7.7%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 54.9% 61.3% 1.63 -10.5%

Away O1.5 33.6% 23.0% 4.35 +46.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torreense U231.9

Portimonense U231.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREENSE U23 · PPG 1.65

PORTIMONENSE U23 · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Torreense U23 (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -25.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

Portimonense U23 (A) 23.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torreense U23 face Portimonense U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torreense U23 a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Portimonense U23 24%, so Torreense U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Torreense U23 and 1.1 for Portimonense U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torreense U23 are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.93 for Portimonense U23. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +46.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Torreense U23 vs Portimonense U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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