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Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:00

Estrela U23

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDL ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leixões U23

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.0%0-27.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.2%2-17.5%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 44.4% 2.25 -31.1%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 43.1% 35.1% 2.85 +22.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 33.1% 45.5% 2.20 -27.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 39.2% 2.55 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrela U231.2

Leixões U231.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELA U23 · PPG 1.42

LEIXÕES U23 · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estrela U23 (H) 30.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -31.1%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Leixões U23 (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrela U23 face Leixões U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrela U23 a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Leixões U23 43%, so Leixões U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Estrela U23 and 1.4 for Leixões U23 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrela U23 are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.36 for Leixões U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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