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Ludogorets II vs Vihren Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 17:00

Ludogorets II

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vihren

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.3%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.2%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 35.7% 2.80 +23.8%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 29.1% 45.5% 2.20 -21.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 52.6% 1.90 -5.2%

Over 3.5 29.1% 30.8% 3.25 -3.3%

BTTS 53.1% 58.5% 1.71 -9.2%

Home O1.5 45.1% 38.6% 2.59 +16.8%

Away O1.5 35.7% 44.6% 2.24 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ludogorets II1.5

Vihren1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LUDOGORETS II · PPG 1.89

VIHREN · PPG 1.65

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ludogorets II (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +23.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Vihren (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ludogorets II face Vihren in Bulgaria - Second League on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ludogorets II a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Vihren 29%, so Ludogorets II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ludogorets II and 1.2 for Vihren (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ludogorets II are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.65 for Vihren. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.4%.

Ludogorets II vs Vihren Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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