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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:00

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

CSKA Sofia II

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.3%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.2%1-113.1%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.3%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 39.2% 2.55 -5.4%

Draw 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -8.8%

Away win 35.5% 40.0% 2.50 -11.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% 26.3% 3.80 +3.8%

BTTS 49.2% 54.3% 1.84 -9.5%

Home O1.5 37.9% 37.3% 2.68 +1.6%

Away O1.5 33.8% 38.3% 2.61 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas1.3

CSKA Sofia II1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS · PPG 1.92

CSKA SOFIA II · PPG 1.59

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -5.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.8%

CSKA Sofia II (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas face CSKA Sofia II in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chernomorets 1919 Burgas a 37% chance, the draw 28% and CSKA Sofia II 36%, so Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 1.1 for CSKA Sofia II (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.59 for CSKA Sofia II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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