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CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 15:00

CSKA Sofia II

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hebar 1918

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.0%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-17.4%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.2%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.6%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-18.5%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 58.8% 1.70 +9.0%

Draw 21.3% 28.6% 3.50 -15.3%

Away win 14.6% 23.8% 4.20 -23.2%

Over 2.5 58.9% 52.6% 1.90 +11.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 34.2% 2.92 +6.6%

BTTS 49.2% 58.1% 1.72 -15.4%

Home O1.5 63.3% 55.2% 1.81 +14.6%

Away O1.5 18.4% 31.1% 3.22 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 64% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Sofia II2.5

Hebar 19180.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA SOFIA II · PPG 1.86

HEBAR 1918 · PPG 1.07

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 1.86 vs 1.07 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Sofia II (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +9.0%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.3%

Hebar 1918 (A) 14.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Sofia II face Hebar 1918 in Bulgaria - Second League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Sofia II a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Hebar 1918 15%, so CSKA Sofia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for CSKA Sofia II and 0.8 for Hebar 1918 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Sofia II are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.07 for Hebar 1918. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.5%.

CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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