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Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Pleven

PPG 1.72 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.2%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-110.1%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 59.9% 1.67 -9.2%

Draw 23.9% 30.8% 3.25 -13.4%

Away win 21.7% 23.3% 4.30 -4.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Over 3.5 30.0% 28.6% 3.50 +5.0%

BTTS 48.4% 52.4% 1.91 -7.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 50.8% 1.97 +7.6%

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Pleven1.9

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK PLEVEN · PPG 1.72

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Pleven (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -9.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.4%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Pleven face Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Pleven a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 22%, so Spartak Pleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Spartak Pleven and 0.8 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Pleven are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 0.95 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.1%.

Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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