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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Fratria Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:00

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Fratria

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-114.1%0-27.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-16.4%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 34.7% 2.88 -9.6%

Draw 33.6% 32.3% 3.10 +4.2%

Away win 34.9% 43.5% 2.30 -19.7%

Over 2.5 36.3% 45.5% 2.20 -20.1%

Over 3.5 21.7% 25.8% 3.88 -9.5%

BTTS 48.4% 54.9% 1.82 -11.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 34.6% 2.89 -7.2%

Away O1.5 35.4% 40.8% 2.45 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.4%

D 34% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1.0

Fratria1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA · PPG 1.19

FRATRIA · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.6%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +4.2%

Fratria (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa face Fratria in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Fratria 35%, so Fratria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and 1.1 for Fratria (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.62 for Fratria. This match finished 0-2.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Fratria Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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