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Vihren vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Vihren

PPG 1.77 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.7%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.2%1-112.0%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 58.8% 1.70 -16.5%

Draw 27.5% 29.4% 3.40 -3.9%

Away win 23.3% 23.1% 4.33 +0.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.2% 3.42 -0.9%

BTTS 48.4% 53.2% 1.88 -9.0%

Home O1.5 45.5% 52.1% 1.92 -12.6%

Away O1.5 24.2% 26.7% 3.75 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vihren1.6

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VIHREN · PPG 1.77

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vihren (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -16.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.9%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vihren face Chernomorets 1919 Burgas in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vihren a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 23%, so Vihren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vihren and 0.9 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vihren are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.16 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. This match finished 1-1.

Vihren vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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