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Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Sportist Svoge

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Pirin Blagoevgrad

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 43.7% — a clear edge.

+42.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.7%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-18.5%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.4%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-17.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 54.6% 1.83 +6.5%

Draw 21.9% 31.3% 3.20 -17.9%

Away win 20.0% 25.6% 3.90 -13.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 42.6% 2.35 +41.9%

Over 3.5 36.8% 23.3% 4.30 +58.2%

BTTS 53.1% 50.8% 1.97 +4.6%

Home O1.5 62.4% 43.7% 2.29 +42.9%

Away O1.5 27.7% 26.7% 3.75 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 1–0✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportist Svoge2.3

Pirin Blagoevgrad0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIST SVOGE · PPG 1.28

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportist Svoge (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +6.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.9%

Pirin Blagoevgrad (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportist Svoge face Pirin Blagoevgrad in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportist Svoge a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Pirin Blagoevgrad 20%, so Sportist Svoge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sportist Svoge and 0.9 for Pirin Blagoevgrad (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportist Svoge are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.85 for Pirin Blagoevgrad. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +58.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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