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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Marek Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 15:45

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

PPG 1.97 · HOME

UPCOMING

Marek

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.8%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-110.5%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.8%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 21.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 50.7% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 80%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Etar Veliko Tarnovo1.8

Marek0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO · PPG 1.97

MAREK · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Marek (A) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Etar Veliko Tarnovo face Marek in Bulgaria - Second League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Etar Veliko Tarnovo a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Marek 21%, so Etar Veliko Tarnovo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo and 0.8 for Marek (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Etar Veliko Tarnovo are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 1.28 for Marek.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Marek Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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