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Ludogorets II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Ludogorets II

PPG 1.66 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.6%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.0%1-111.2%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 21.7% 23.1% 4.33 -3.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 26.9% 3.72 +4.5%

BTTS 51.0% 52.4% 1.91 -2.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 50.3% 1.99 -1.7%

Away O1.5 20.3% 25.3% 3.96 -11.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ludogorets II1.7

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LUDOGORETS II · PPG 1.66

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ludogorets II (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ludogorets II face Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ludogorets II a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 22%, so Ludogorets II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ludogorets II and 0.8 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ludogorets II are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.14 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Ludogorets II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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