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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 15:30

Pirin Blagoevgrad

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hebar 1918

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+31.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.7%0-25.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.9%1-110.7%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 32.3% 3.10 +34.8%

Draw 23.2% 32.5% 3.08 -17.1%

Away win 33.3% 46.5% 2.15 -28.4%

Over 2.5 62.7% 47.6% 2.10 +31.7%

Over 3.5 38.7% 26.9% 3.72 +44.0%

BTTS 61.6% 54.3% 1.84 +13.3%

Home O1.5 47.2% 32.9% 3.04 +43.5%

Away O1.5 47.3% 43.1% 2.32 +9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pirin Blagoevgrad1.6

Hebar 19181.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD · PPG 1.22

HEBAR 1918 · PPG 1.02

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pirin Blagoevgrad (H) 43.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +34.8%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.08 · IMPLIED 32.5% EV -17.1%

Hebar 1918 (A) 33.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pirin Blagoevgrad face Hebar 1918 in Bulgaria - Second League on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pirin Blagoevgrad a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Hebar 1918 33%, so Pirin Blagoevgrad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 1.6 for Hebar 1918 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pirin Blagoevgrad are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.02 for Hebar 1918. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.0%.

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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