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Buxoro vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 15:00

Buxoro

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Neftchi

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.82 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-119.3%0-213.5%0-36.3%0-4+3.0%1 1-08.0%1-111.2%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-02.3%2-13.3%2-22.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.5%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.3% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 55.5% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.7%

A 56% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.3%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 0–2 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buxoro0.6

Neftchi1.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXORO · PPG 2.44

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.82 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Buxoro (H) 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Neftchi (A) 55.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buxoro face Neftchi in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buxoro a 17% chance, the draw 27% and Neftchi 56%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Buxoro and 1.4 for Neftchi (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buxoro are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 2.50 for Neftchi.

Buxoro vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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