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Qizilqum vs Mash'al Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 15:30

Qizilqum

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mash'al

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-110.2%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.8%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-18.0%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.6% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 35.5% — — —

Away O1.5 17.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 1–0 16.6%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qizilqum1.2

Mash'al0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

QIZILQUM · PPG 1.00

MASH'AL · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qizilqum (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mash'al (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Qizilqum face Mash'al in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qizilqum a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Mash'al 24%, so Qizilqum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Qizilqum and 0.8 for Mash'al (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qizilqum are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Mash'al.

Qizilqum vs Mash'al Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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