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Neftchi vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Neftchi

PPG 2.38 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Qizilqum

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.9% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-12.8%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.5%1-16.2%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.4%2-16.9%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.7%3-15.1%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.8%4+-14.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.9% 84.7% 1.18 -15.2%

Draw 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

Away win 9.0% 7.7% 13.00 +10.2%

Over 2.5 51.0% 62.5% 1.60 -18.4%

Over 3.5 29.7% 42.6% 2.35 -18.1%

BTTS 45.2% 44.4% 2.25 +1.7%

Home O1.5 62.4% 76.9% 1.30 -18.9%

Away O1.5 11.1% 13.7% 7.30 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.2%

H 72% / xG 2.2-0.4 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.4%

#2 1–0 16.5%

#3 3–0 13.7%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftchi2.2

Qizilqum0.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.38

QIZILQUM · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.85 for Home, form 2.38 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Neftchi (H) 71.9%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -15.2%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +3.0%

Qizilqum (A) 9.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftchi face Qizilqum in Uzbekistan - Super League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftchi a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Qizilqum 9%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Neftchi and 0.4 for Qizilqum (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftchi are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Qizilqum. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 5-0.

Neftchi vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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