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Surkhon vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 14:00

Surkhon

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sogdiana

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.8%0-25.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.2%1-110.9%1-28.1%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.6%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.0%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 34.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Surkhon1.6

Sogdiana1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SURKHON · PPG 1.00

SOGDIANA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Surkhon (H) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sogdiana (A) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Surkhon face Sogdiana in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Surkhon a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Sogdiana 35%, so Surkhon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Surkhon and 1.5 for Sogdiana (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Surkhon are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sogdiana.

Surkhon vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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