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Navbahor vs Bunyodkor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 14:00

Navbahor

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bunyodkor

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-18.5%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.3%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.8%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% — — —

Draw 25.9% — — —

Away win 23.0% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Navbahor1.4

Bunyodkor0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.57

BUNYODKOR · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Navbahor (H) 51.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bunyodkor (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Navbahor face Bunyodkor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navbahor a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Bunyodkor 23%, so Navbahor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Navbahor and 0.8 for Bunyodkor (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navbahor are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.86 for Bunyodkor.

Navbahor vs Bunyodkor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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