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Nasaf vs Pakhtakor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Nasaf

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pakhtakor

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-114.9%0-27.8%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.8%2-16.1%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% — — —

Draw 33.4% — — —

Away win 35.2% — — —

Over 2.5 36.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.1% — — —

BTTS 47.4% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 32.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.4%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nasaf0.9

Pakhtakor1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NASAF · PPG 1.50

PAKHTAKOR · PPG 2.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nasaf (H) 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pakhtakor (A) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nasaf face Pakhtakor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nasaf a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Pakhtakor 35%, so Pakhtakor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Nasaf and 1.1 for Pakhtakor (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nasaf are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.43 for Pakhtakor.

Nasaf vs Pakhtakor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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