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Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 15:00

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Xorazm

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.1%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 55.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.0% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 27.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Samarqand1.8

Xorazm1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.50

XORAZM · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Samarqand (H) 54.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Xorazm (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Samarqand face Xorazm in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Samarqand a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Xorazm 23%, so Dinamo Samarqand are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dinamo Samarqand and 1.0 for Xorazm (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Samarqand are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Xorazm.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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