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Buxoro vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 15:30

Buxoro

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Olmaliq

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.0%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.1%1-112.1%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 55.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.6% — — —

BTTS 57.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.3%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buxoro1.5

Olmaliq1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXORO · PPG 2.38

OLMALIQ · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Buxoro (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Olmaliq (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buxoro face Olmaliq in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buxoro a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Olmaliq 30%, so Buxoro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Buxoro and 1.2 for Olmaliq (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buxoro are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Olmaliq.

Buxoro vs Olmaliq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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