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Sogdiana vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 14:00

Sogdiana

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qizilqum

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.5%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.3%1-19.4%1-25.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-16.9%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.8%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 22.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 60.4% — — —

Home O1.5 59.8% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.4%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogdiana2.1

Qizilqum1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGDIANA · PPG 1.25

QIZILQUM · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogdiana (H) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qizilqum (A) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogdiana face Qizilqum in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogdiana a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Qizilqum 23%, so Sogdiana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sogdiana and 1.1 for Qizilqum (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogdiana are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Qizilqum.

Sogdiana vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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