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Chelyabinsk vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:30

Chelyabinsk

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Torpedo Moskva

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.0%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 30.1% 3.32 +50.7%

Draw 27.3% 32.5% 3.08 -9.6%

Away win 27.3% 45.2% 2.21 -23.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 45.2% 2.21 +10.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.5% 3.92 +7.5%

BTTS 53.1% 53.5% 1.87 -0.7%

Home O1.5 45.1% 30.7% 3.26 +47.0%

Away O1.5 31.3% 41.8% 2.39 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelyabinsk1.4

Torpedo Moskva1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELYABINSK · PPG 1.60

TORPEDO MOSKVA · PPG 1.35

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chelyabinsk (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.32 · IMPLIED 30.1% EV +50.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.08 · IMPLIED 32.5% EV -9.6%

Torpedo Moskva (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.21 · IMPLIED 45.2% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelyabinsk face Torpedo Moskva in Russia - First League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelyabinsk a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Torpedo Moskva 27%, so Chelyabinsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chelyabinsk and 1.0 for Torpedo Moskva (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelyabinsk are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.35 for Torpedo Moskva. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +47.0%.

Chelyabinsk vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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