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Rotor Volgograd vs Chelyabinsk Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:30

Rotor Volgograd

PPG 2.18 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Chelyabinsk

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.2%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.7%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 56.5% 1.77 -18.9%

Draw 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -3.7%

Away win 26.6% 22.0% 4.55 +12.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 43.7% 2.29 +5.1%

Over 3.5 25.8% 24.1% 4.15 +4.2%

BTTS 48.4% 48.1% 2.08 +0.7%

Home O1.5 38.8% 47.2% 2.12 -17.7%

Away O1.5 27.7% 22.2% 4.50 +14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rotor Volgograd1.4

Chelyabinsk0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD · PPG 2.18

CHELYABINSK · PPG 1.26

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rotor Volgograd (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -18.9%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.7%

Chelyabinsk (A) 26.6%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rotor Volgograd face Chelyabinsk in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rotor Volgograd a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Chelyabinsk 27%, so Rotor Volgograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rotor Volgograd and 0.9 for Chelyabinsk (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rotor Volgograd are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.26 for Chelyabinsk. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Rotor Volgograd vs Chelyabinsk Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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