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Ural vs FC UFA Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Ural

PPG 1.70 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

FC UFA

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-18.0%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.1%1-111.7%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.6%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 66.2% 1.51 -21.3%

Draw 27.0% 26.0% 3.84 +2.2%

Away win 20.8% 15.6% 6.40 +19.9%

Over 2.5 44.0% 46.1% 2.17 -4.5%

Over 3.5 22.0% 25.4% 3.94 -8.0%

BTTS 47.4% 45.0% 2.22 +5.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 16.9% 5.90 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.4%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ural1.5

FC UFA0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

URAL · PPG 1.70

FC UFA · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ural (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -21.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.84 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +2.2%

FC UFA (A) 20.8%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ural face FC UFA in Russia - First League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ural a 52% chance, the draw 27% and FC UFA 21%, so Ural are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ural and 0.7 for FC UFA (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ural are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.89 for FC UFA. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Ural vs FC UFA Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - First League Predictions