Today / Russia - First League / FC UFA vs KAMAZ

FC UFA vs KAMAZ Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 14:00

FC UFA

PPG 2.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

KAMAZ

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.2% — a clear edge.

+40.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.6%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-18.2%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-16.8%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-16.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 45.2% 2.21 +40.1%

Draw 21.4% 31.7% 3.15 -19.6%

Away win 15.2% 30.9% 3.24 -30.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.4% 2.11 +12.7%

Over 3.5 32.2% 27.9% 3.58 +15.3%

BTTS 48.7% 54.6% 1.83 -10.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 42.9% 2.33 +40.0%

Away O1.5 20.3% 32.5% 3.08 -22.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC UFA2.2

KAMAZ0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC UFA · PPG 2.18

KAMAZ · PPG 1.02

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 2.18 vs 1.02 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC UFA (H) 63.4%

ODDS 2.21 · IMPLIED 45.2% EV +40.1%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -19.6%

KAMAZ (A) 15.2%

ODDS 3.24 · IMPLIED 30.9% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC UFA face KAMAZ in Russia - First League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC UFA a 63% chance, the draw 21% and KAMAZ 15%, so FC UFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC UFA and 0.7 for KAMAZ (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC UFA are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.02 for KAMAZ. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.9%.

FC UFA vs KAMAZ Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - First League Predictions