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Rotor Volgograd vs Ural Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:30

Rotor Volgograd

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ural

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.9%0-26.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.9%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 31.8% 3.14 +38.8%

Draw 26.7% 33.9% 2.95 -12.7%

Away win 29.1% 42.0% 2.38 -18.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 42.9% 2.33 +16.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 53.1% 51.5% 1.94 +3.0%

Home O1.5 31.8% 30.7% 3.26 +3.7%

Away O1.5 34.7% 38.3% 2.61 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rotor Volgograd1.2

Ural1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD · PPG 2.22

URAL · PPG 1.68

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rotor Volgograd (H) 44.2%

ODDS 3.14 · IMPLIED 31.8% EV +38.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.7%

Ural (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rotor Volgograd face Ural in Russia - First League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rotor Volgograd a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Ural 29%, so Rotor Volgograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rotor Volgograd and 1.1 for Ural (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rotor Volgograd are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.68 for Ural. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.9%.

Rotor Volgograd vs Ural Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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