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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Shinnik Yaroslavl

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Arsenal Tula

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 41.8% — a clear edge.

+34.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.4%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-110.3%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 41.8% 2.39 +34.6%

Draw 22.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.8%

Away win 21.0% 33.8% 2.96 -22.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 46.5% 2.15 +15.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 27.9% 3.58 +15.6%

BTTS 52.8% 54.3% 1.84 -2.9%

Home O1.5 55.4% 40.5% 2.47 +36.8%

Away O1.5 20.4% 34.6% 2.89 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shinnik Yaroslavl1.9

Arsenal Tula0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL · PPG 1.80

ARSENAL TULA · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shinnik Yaroslavl (H) 56.3%

ODDS 2.39 · IMPLIED 41.8% EV +34.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.8%

Arsenal Tula (A) 21.0%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shinnik Yaroslavl face Arsenal Tula in Russia - First League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Arsenal Tula 21%, so Shinnik Yaroslavl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 0.8 for Arsenal Tula (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shinnik Yaroslavl are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Arsenal Tula. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +58.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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