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Enisey vs KAMAZ Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 09:00

Enisey

PPG 1.74 · HOME

UPCOMING

KAMAZ

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.2%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-110.9%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 53.5% 1.87 +0.4%

Draw 24.3% 30.9% 3.24 -12.8%

Away win 22.1% 23.5% 4.25 -3.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 46.3% 2.16 +7.8%

Over 3.5 29.5% 27.2% 3.68 +5.1%

BTTS 50.9% 51.5% 1.94 -1.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 47.8% 2.09 +2.8%

Away O1.5 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.9%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enisey1.8

KAMAZ0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ENISEY · PPG 1.74

KAMAZ · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Enisey (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV +0.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.24 · IMPLIED 30.9% EV -12.8%

KAMAZ (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enisey face KAMAZ in Russia - First League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enisey a 54% chance, the draw 24% and KAMAZ 22%, so Enisey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Enisey and 0.9 for KAMAZ (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enisey are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.12 for KAMAZ. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.3%.

Enisey vs KAMAZ Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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