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Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 05:00

Ska-khabarovsk

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Spartak Kostroma

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-116.1%0-212.5%0-36.5%0-4+3.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.5%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.6%2-14.1%2-23.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.0% 25.4% 3.94 -15.1%

Draw 24.5% 31.8% 3.14 -13.8%

Away win 56.5% 50.8% 1.97 +11.3%

Over 2.5 48.1% 46.1% 2.17 +4.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 26.0% 3.84 +6.4%

BTTS 48.4% 52.6% 1.90 -8.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 26.9% 3.72 +19.4%

Away O1.5 48.2% 45.7% 2.19 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.4%

A 56% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 0–2 12.5%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ska-khabarovsk0.7

Spartak Kostroma1.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SKA-KHABAROVSK · PPG 1.07

SPARTAK KOSTROMA · PPG 1.71

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.84 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ska-khabarovsk (H) 19.0%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -15.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.14 · IMPLIED 31.8% EV -13.8%

Spartak Kostroma (A) 56.5%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ska-khabarovsk face Spartak Kostroma in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ska-khabarovsk a 19% chance, the draw 25% and Spartak Kostroma 56%, so Spartak Kostroma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ska-khabarovsk and 1.6 for Spartak Kostroma (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ska-khabarovsk are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.71 for Spartak Kostroma. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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