Today / Russia - First League / FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 15:00

FK Neftekhimik

PPG 1.49 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shinnik Yaroslavl

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.2%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.3%1-113.3%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 37.9% 2.64 +13.5%

Draw 29.7% 35.0% 2.86 -9.0%

Away win 27.3% 35.1% 2.85 -13.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 40.5% 2.47 +5.5%

Over 3.5 21.1% 22.0% 4.55 -2.4%

BTTS 47.7% 49.8% 2.01 -4.1%

Home O1.5 31.7% 34.0% 2.94 -6.8%

Away O1.5 29.2% 31.8% 3.14 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.7%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Neftekhimik1.2

Shinnik Yaroslavl1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FK NEFTEKHIMIK · PPG 1.49

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL · PPG 1.01

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Neftekhimik (H) 43.0%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV +13.5%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -9.0%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Neftekhimik face Shinnik Yaroslavl in Russia - First League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Neftekhimik a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 27%, so FK Neftekhimik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FK Neftekhimik and 1.0 for Shinnik Yaroslavl (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Neftekhimik are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.01 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - First League Predictions