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KAMAZ vs Volga Ulyanovsk Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

KAMAZ

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Volga Ulyanovsk

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.7%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 40.3% 2.48 +13.3%

Draw 27.1% 32.9% 3.04 -10.6%

Away win 27.1% 34.7% 2.88 -13.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 45.7% 2.19 +10.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 25.8% 3.88 +9.1%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 45.5% 38.6% 2.59 +17.8%

Away O1.5 35.4% 34.6% 2.89 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 10%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KAMAZ1.6

Volga Ulyanovsk1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAMAZ · PPG 0.94

VOLGA ULYANOVSK · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KAMAZ (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +13.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.04 · IMPLIED 32.9% EV -10.6%

Volga Ulyanovsk (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

KAMAZ face Volga Ulyanovsk in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KAMAZ a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Volga Ulyanovsk 27%, so KAMAZ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for KAMAZ and 1.1 for Volga Ulyanovsk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KAMAZ are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.85 for Volga Ulyanovsk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-2.

KAMAZ vs Volga Ulyanovsk Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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