Today / India - Indian Super League / Chennaiyin vs Mohammedan

Chennaiyin vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 5 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 14:00

Chennaiyin

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mohammedan

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-12.9%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.6%1-16.5%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.6%2-17.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-15.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-15.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.6% 76.9% 1.30 +3.5%

Draw 15.1% 20.0% 5.00 -24.5%

Away win 5.3% 13.5% 7.40 -60.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 69.0% 1.45 -27.6%

Over 3.5 28.0% 46.5% 2.15 -39.8%

BTTS 30.3% 58.8% 1.70 -48.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob30.3%

H 80% / xG 2.3-0.4 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 3–0 13.3%

#4 4–0 7.5%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chennaiyin2.3

Mohammedan0.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENNAIYIN · PPG 1.00

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.00), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chennaiyin (H) 79.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +3.5%

Draw 15.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -24.5%

Mohammedan (A) 5.3%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV -60.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chennaiyin face Mohammedan in India - Indian Super League on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chennaiyin a 80% chance, the draw 15% and Mohammedan 5%, so Chennaiyin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Chennaiyin and 0.4 for Mohammedan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chennaiyin are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.17 for Mohammedan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Chennaiyin vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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