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Hebar 1918 vs Vihren Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 17:00

Hebar 1918

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vihren

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.5%0-26.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.0%1-111.0%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 36.0% 33.3% 3.00 +8.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 51.3% 1.95 +19.3%

Over 3.5 37.9% 31.3% 3.20 +21.3%

BTTS 62.1% 59.2% 1.69 +5.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 36.8% 2.72 +30.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hebar 19181.5

Vihren1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HEBAR 1918 · PPG 1.25

VIHREN · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hebar 1918 (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -19.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

Vihren (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hebar 1918 face Vihren in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hebar 1918 a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Vihren 36%, so Hebar 1918 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hebar 1918 and 1.6 for Vihren (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hebar 1918 are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.38 for Vihren. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.6%.

Hebar 1918 vs Vihren Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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