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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Pirin Blagoevgrad

PPG 1.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

CSKA Sofia II

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.6%0-27.4%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.6%1-111.8%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.3%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 38.5% 2.60 -16.0%

Draw 29.9% 33.3% 3.00 -6.2%

Away win 37.8% 39.2% 2.55 -3.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 29.9% 27.9% 3.58 +4.2%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 33.1% 39.8% 2.51 -16.9%

Away O1.5 48.0% 38.3% 2.61 +25.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pirin Blagoevgrad1.2

CSKA Sofia II1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD · PPG 1.46

CSKA SOFIA II · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pirin Blagoevgrad (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.0%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.2%

CSKA Sofia II (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pirin Blagoevgrad face CSKA Sofia II in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pirin Blagoevgrad a 32% chance, the draw 30% and CSKA Sofia II 38%, so CSKA Sofia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 1.5 for CSKA Sofia II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pirin Blagoevgrad are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.32 for CSKA Sofia II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +25.3%.

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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