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Austin vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 00:30

Austin

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Dallas

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.5%0-26.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.0%1-111.8%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.1%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.5%3-13.7%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 36.2% 2.76 +10.4%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 35.3% 43.9% 2.28 -19.5%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 37.0% 2.70 -14.1%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 38.3% 45.5% 2.20 -15.7%

Away O1.5 42.8% 51.3% 1.95 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -35.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin1.4

FC Dallas1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN · PPG 1.75

FC DALLAS · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Austin (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +10.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

FC Dallas (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin face FC Dallas in USA - MLS on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin a 40% chance, the draw 25% and FC Dallas 35%, so Austin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Austin and 1.5 for FC Dallas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.56 for FC Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Austin vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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