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Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:30

Real Salt Lake

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Minnesota United FC

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.5%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-19.4%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-16.9%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.0%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 57.8% 1.73 -1.7%

Draw 21.7% 25.3% 3.95 -8.6%

Away win 21.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.8%

Over 2.5 59.5% 61.7% 1.62 -3.6%

Over 3.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

BTTS 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

Home O1.5 59.8% 60.6% 1.65 -1.3%

Away O1.5 23.6% 35.7% 2.80 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Salt Lake2.1

Minnesota United FC0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 2.62

MINNESOTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Salt Lake (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -1.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.6%

Minnesota United FC (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Salt Lake face Minnesota United FC in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Salt Lake a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Minnesota United FC 22%, so Real Salt Lake are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Real Salt Lake and 0.9 for Minnesota United FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Salt Lake are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.44 for Minnesota United FC.

Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions