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Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:30

Houston Dynamo

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.5%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.8%1-111.2%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.5%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 59.9% 1.67 -11.0%

Draw 24.4% 25.3% 3.95 -2.2%

Away win 22.2% 21.5% 4.65 +1.9%

Over 2.5 51.7% 61.7% 1.62 -16.3%

Over 3.5 30.0% 39.2% 2.55 -23.5%

BTTS 53.1% 62.5% 1.60 -15.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 62.5% 1.60 -21.3%

Away O1.5 23.6% 33.9% 2.95 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo1.7

Los Angeles Galaxy0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 2.11

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -11.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.2%

Los Angeles Galaxy (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo face Los Angeles Galaxy in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Los Angeles Galaxy 22%, so Houston Dynamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Houston Dynamo and 0.9 for Los Angeles Galaxy (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.33 for Los Angeles Galaxy.

Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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