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Austin II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:30

Austin II

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vancouver Whitecaps II

PPG 0.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.6%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.5%1-14.9%1-21.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.1%2-17.6%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-113.5%4+-25.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 75.2% 1.33 -9.2%

Draw 16.5% 22.2% 4.50 -15.4%

Away win 15.2% 14.3% 7.00 +3.8%

Over 2.5 67.4% 69.4% 1.44 -2.9%

Over 3.5 46.5% 49.0% 2.04 -5.1%

BTTS 54.5% 61.7% 1.62 -11.7%

Home O1.5 80.3% 76.9% 1.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 17.2% 27.5% 3.64 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 68% / xG 3.1-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 4–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austin II3.1

Vancouver Whitecaps II0.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTIN II · PPG 2.09

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS II · PPG 0.18

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.36 for Home, form 2.09 vs 0.18 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Austin II (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -9.2%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -15.4%

Vancouver Whitecaps II (A) 15.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austin II face Vancouver Whitecaps II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austin II a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Vancouver Whitecaps II 15%, so Austin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Austin II and 0.8 for Vancouver Whitecaps II (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austin II are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.18 for Vancouver Whitecaps II. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.4%.

Austin II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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