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North Texas vs Portland Timbers II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:45

North Texas

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Portland Timbers II

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.2%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 40.0% 2.50 +21.0%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 26.9% 45.5% 2.20 -24.5%

Over 2.5 53.7% 63.7% 1.57 -15.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 45.7% 2.19 -30.4%

BTTS 54.5% 69.4% 1.44 -21.5%

Home O1.5 45.1% 49.8% 2.01 -9.3%

Away O1.5 34.2% 55.2% 1.81 -38.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Texas1.5

Portland Timbers II1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.88

PORTLAND TIMBERS II · PPG 2.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North Texas (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +21.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Portland Timbers II (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Texas face Portland Timbers II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Texas a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Portland Timbers II 27%, so North Texas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for North Texas and 1.1 for Portland Timbers II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Texas are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.27 for Portland Timbers II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.0%.

North Texas vs Portland Timbers II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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