Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / The Town vs St. Louis City II

The Town vs St. Louis City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 02:30

The Town

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

St. Louis City II

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.8%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.9%1-18.6%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.4%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-17.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 42.0% 2.38 +31.9%

Draw 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

Away win 22.1% 38.2% 2.62 -25.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 63.7% 1.57 -6.6%

Over 3.5 36.5% 42.6% 2.35 -14.2%

BTTS 54.5% 66.7% 1.50 -18.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 51.3% 1.95 +22.9%

Away O1.5 26.6% 48.1% 2.08 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 3–0 7.6%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Town2.3

St. Louis City II1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

THE TOWN · PPG 1.78

ST. LOUIS CITY II · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The Town (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +31.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.1%

St. Louis City II (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

The Town face St. Louis City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Town a 55% chance, the draw 23% and St. Louis City II 22%, so The Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for The Town and 1.0 for St. Louis City II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Town are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.18 for St. Louis City II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.5%.

The Town vs St. Louis City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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