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Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:30

Colorado Rapids

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.7%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.9%1-15.2%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.4%2-17.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-18.0%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-112.8%4+-24.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.3% 67.1% 1.49 +6.2%

Draw 17.3% 21.7% 4.60 -12.3%

Away win 11.4% 18.2% 5.50 -22.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 69.4% 1.44 -3.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 47.6% 2.10 -9.7%

BTTS 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Home O1.5 80.3% 71.4% 1.40 +12.4%

Away O1.5 17.2% 34.7% 2.88 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 71% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 4–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Rapids3.0

Sporting Kansas City0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 1.88

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.28 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Rapids (H) 71.3%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV +6.2%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -12.3%

Sporting Kansas City (A) 11.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Rapids face Sporting Kansas City in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Rapids a 71% chance, the draw 17% and Sporting Kansas City 11%, so Colorado Rapids are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Colorado Rapids and 0.8 for Sporting Kansas City (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Rapids are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.67 for Sporting Kansas City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.4%.

Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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