Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Los Angeles FC II vs Tacoma Defiance
Los Angeles FC II vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 02:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 41 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%
Form & verdict
LOS ANGELES FC II · PPG 2.18
TACOMA DEFIANCE · PPG 1.10
xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Los Angeles FC II face Tacoma Defiance in USA - MLS Next Pro on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC II a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Tacoma Defiance 23%, so Los Angeles FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Los Angeles FC II and 1.0 for Tacoma Defiance (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC II are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.10 for Tacoma Defiance.