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Sporting KC II vs Colorado Rapids II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:00

Sporting KC II

PPG 0.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colorado Rapids II

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.1%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.9%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 44.4% 2.25 +13.4%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 25.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.8%

Over 2.5 59.5% 65.4% 1.53 -9.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

BTTS 60.3% 71.4% 1.40 -15.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 55.2% 1.81 -10.9%

Away O1.5 34.8% 52.4% 1.91 -33.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting KC II1.8

Colorado Rapids II1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KC II · PPG 0.91

COLORADO RAPIDS II · PPG 0.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sporting KC II (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +13.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

Colorado Rapids II (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting KC II face Colorado Rapids II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting KC II a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Colorado Rapids II 26%, so Sporting KC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sporting KC II and 1.2 for Colorado Rapids II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting KC II are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.27 for Colorado Rapids II.

Sporting KC II vs Colorado Rapids II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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