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Nashville SC vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:30

Nashville SC

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Inter Miami

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.9%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.3%1-17.4%1-24.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.8%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-18.9%4+-25.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 41.7% 2.40 +33.4%

Draw 21.3% 26.3% 3.80 -11.4%

Away win 23.1% 39.1% 2.56 -24.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 69.0% 1.45 -2.4%

Over 3.5 43.0% 47.6% 2.10 -9.7%

BTTS 61.6% 72.5% 1.38 -15.0%

Home O1.5 63.4% 56.5% 1.77 +12.2%

Away O1.5 34.7% 54.1% 1.85 -35.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nashville SC2.5

Inter Miami1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 2.78

INTER MIAMI · PPG 2.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nashville SC (H) 55.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +33.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.4%

Inter Miami (A) 23.1%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nashville SC face Inter Miami in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nashville SC a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Inter Miami 23%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Nashville SC and 1.2 for Inter Miami (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nashville SC are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 2.50 for Inter Miami. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +50.3%.

Nashville SC vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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